Estimate the time to farm a quantity, a specific drop, or a full set, with the drop rate, run length, and your real session availability.
Change the inputs that matter to your decision. Optional assumptions stay collapsed until you need them.
100 runs on average, or 5.0 h. Half of players have it by 69.
Each run is independent, so the 0 runs already done do not make the next one likelier. The expected count is 100, but only about 63% of players have the drop by then — the median is 69 and one player in ten is still going at 230.
| Runs expected | 100The average, not a guarantee |
|---|---|
| Time | 5.0 h100 runs at 3 min each |
| Half of players by | 69 runs3.5 h |
| Nine in ten by | 230 runs11.5 h |
| Ninety-nine in a hundred by | 459 runs22.9 h |
| Sessions | 32 hours each |
| Calendar time | 1 week4 sessions a week |
A drop is a probability, not a schedule. The expected count is an average across many players; the confidence figures say how many runs it takes before a stated share of them would be done, which is the more useful number when you are planning your own time.
Practical notes about the inputs, assumptions, and result.
No. A hundred runs at 1% gives about a 63% chance, so more than a third of players are still going. The median is 69 runs, one in ten is still empty-handed at 230, and one in a hundred is at 459. Those are the numbers worth planning against — the expected count on its own reads as a promise it is not.
No. Each run is an independent trial, so the next one has exactly the same chance as the first. There is no accumulating pressure and no debt to be repaid, unless your game has an explicit pity timer or threshold mechanic, in which case this model does not apply.
Because the drops you already have keep coming back. With five items at 5% each, dividing five by the rate suggests a hundred runs, but the real expectation is over two hundred — and almost all of that difference is the last one or two items. Once you have four of five, the fifth alone takes as long as the first four together.
Divide one by N and multiply by a hundred. A 1 in 512 drop is 0.195%, a 1 in 128 is 0.781%, and a 1 in 5000 is 0.02%. Enter the percentage and the tool works from there.
The confidence figures, for anything you are planning your time around. Expected runs is an average across many players, and the distribution is heavily skewed — a small number of very unlucky runs pull the average above the median. If you want to know when you will probably be done, the 90% figure is the honest answer.
Because hours are not the constraint; sessions are. Forty hours of farming is a weekend for one player and two months for another. Giving the session length and how often you play turns an abstract number of hours into a date you can decide about.
Other tools in games.
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Find the experience between two levels on a chosen curve — including the published RuneScape table — with the time, actions, and milestones to get there.